Modeling, Analytics and Business Intelligence

Fixing US economy’s health is a boon for DC reg

Posted in Economy by Sanjay Bapna on January 11, 2009

As federal role in reviving the economy grows, Washington region’s lawyers, lobbyists benefit

biggovtcartoonbox_slate_com1 Barack Obama prepares an economic stimulus package … “There will be a mad rush to have influence on where that money should go,” said David Rubenstein, co-founder and managing director of The Carlyle Group,

… the expanding federal government — which has added more than 7,500 jobs in the Washington region over the past decade  … Annual military and homeland security spending has risen sharply since Sept. 11, leading to years of prosperity for the region’s consultants and contractors

Now, as Uncle Sam mounts a multitrillion-dollar effort to rescue the country from its worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, some companies based outside the region are beefing up their Washington offices.

Washington and its suburbs gained 31,000 jobs over the 12-month period that ended in November, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. …

With government workers and contractors accounting for roughly one-third of the job force, Washington tends to prosper in times of crisis.

 

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Ponzi-Scheme

Posted in Economy by Sanjay Bapna on January 6, 2009
When Bernanke reigns, Sweat pours

When Bernanke reigns, Sweat pours

 

Check out the other cartoons from PoliticalHumor.

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Links 01/06/09

Posted in Links by Sanjay Bapna on January 6, 2009

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Existing Homes Inventory: No Let up

Posted in Economy by Sanjay Bapna on January 6, 2009

November 2008 data from National Association of Realtors suggests no let up in the inventory of Existing Homes. On a YoY basis, Inventory is up by 10.9%.  The inventory for the lean Nov. month stands at 11.2 months of supply.  Historically, the inventory has been less than 5 months. 

The economic ramifications of the inventory is critical. Large supply decreases prices of homes. The decrease in the price of homes increases the Loan-to-Value (LTV) of a home. LTV is highly correlated with loan defaults. Loan defaults are highly correlated with “putting further pressure on” home prices and thus the cycle feeds on itself.  Unless the cycle is stopped (e.g., by wage increases, stimulus spending, direct intervention to help those defaulting), the economy will rest on shaky foundation.

Exisiting Homes Inventory. Nov Data is preliminary.

Existing Homes Inventory. Nov Data is preliminary.

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US Impact of Science Still Strong: But Not Pretty Trends

Posted in Economy by Sanjay Bapna on January 5, 2009

Despite Slide in World Share (of Science), U.S. Impact Still Looks Strong : ScienceWatch

US Losing Asia Gaining

US Losing Asia Gaining

Graphing and comparing the year-by-year percentage share of world scientific papers for the United States, the Asia Pacific region, and the European Union since 1993 indicates that the U.S. is continuing to lose world share, particularly to the collective Asian nations. Nevertheless, the citation impact of U.S. research remains strong when compared to world baseline figures in the main fields of science, particularly in physics, chemistry, and materials.

U.S. Output and Impact by Field
(Ranked by relative citation impact compared to world, 2003-07)
Rank Field U.S. world share, 2003-07 (%) U.S. # of papers, 2003-07 U.S. citation impact Relative impact vs. world (%)
1 Physics 23.26 125,406 6.15 +55
2 Chemistry 20.70 125,799 7.33 +52
3 Materials Science 18.10 30,590 4.23 +47
4 Geosciences 34.62 44,846 5.40 +42
5 Computer Science 35.27 20,732 2.10 +40
6 Microbiology 34.01 31,693 9.90 +39
7 Clinical Medicine 36.92 367,956 7.84 +36
8 Biology & Biochemistry 37.10 111,479 10.33 +35
9 Space Science 49.17 25,606 10.48 +34
10 Pharmacology 30.84 27,515 7.23 +34
11 Economics & Business 48.19 31,870 2.75 +32
12 Engineering 28.06 102,445 2.59 +31
13 Agricultural Sciences 23.88 24,401 3.81 +30
14 Molecular Biology. & Genetics 45.96 53,682 15.45 +29
15 Mathematics 29.86 26,186 1.85 +28
16 Neuroscience & Behavior 43.44 69,397 10.15 +26
17 Immunology 45.51 29,104 13.57 +26
18 Ecology/Environmental 35.65 43,661 5.10 +26
19 Plant & Animal Sciences 30.27 77,547 4.00 +25
20 Psychology/Psychiatry 51.97 59,095 4.80 +18
21 Social Sciences 52.29 85,084 2.51 +17

Source: Thomson Reuters National Science Indicators

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